MSC 2023

6 Key takeaways from this year's Munich Security Conference 

This is my Twitter thread about the MSC 2023.

Everyone was really happy to meet in person again.

People met more often bilaterally off-stage rather than attending main stage panels in the audience - a good sign imho.

A recurring topic across panels: What will the future of war look like?

• Kinetic (tanks on the ground) vs. non-kinetic measures (attacks on the infrastructure, including computer systems and the information space as well as economic sanctions).

• The role of defensive measures (increasing) vs offensive measures (tbd).

The voices of "the global south"

Tldr; 

Can you guys just stop your outdated territorial conflicts from the 20th century and focus on today's problems like climate change and economic growth? We have no interest in your power games and won’t support either side.

Information warfare almost disappeared from the MSC agenda. However, on almost every side panel, narrative warfare - of domestic or foreign nature - was mentioned as a major roadblock for getting things done by heads of state across the globe.

China introduced their narratives to justify their military measures if and when the US and its allies support Taiwan:

• China is a power for peace in the world.

• Sovereignty and territorial integrity: Taiwan has never been or will ever be an independent country. It is a part of China.

• Any violations against China's territorial integrity will be a “real threat to peace and stability” and "any interference" will "damage global peace". 

• If the US supports Taiwan, it’s a double-standard of their own principles when it comes to territorial integrity (Ukraine vs China).

• If the US does not make the “right choice”, the US will face a “new cold war” and a “block confrontation”.

Re: Balloon
The narratives continued to be David against Goliath: 

• The Chinese balloon in the US was a civilian balloon. 

• The US chose the wrong approach and over-reacted by using missiles against a civilian balloon.

• With the balloon, the US government diverted attention from domestic problems.

We can expect more tangible 20th-century warfare tactics by China in the future, targeting the general public to sow discord and tensions in US domestic politics (and beyond?).

Selected panels and keynotes I enjoyed or found insightful

• Panel: Dis:information: Navigating the Battle of Narratives

• Keynote and conversation: China in the world

• MCSC 2023: Fireside Chat - Kemba Walden with Christopher Krebs